In the Kremlin discuss scenarios of how and when Vladimir Putin announced the readiness to participate in elections. Public announcements about the readiness to run for the head of state did not, however, "determined that will participate", told RBC Federal official. To date, there are several scenarios of the drama of Putin's nomination.
If we talk about the date when Putin could make an announcement about his intention to run for a new term, there are two approaches: the President will announce his decision before the Federation Council will appoint the elections, or after. Presidential elections will be held on March 18, 2018. The upper house of the Parliament must appoint a campaign in the period from 7 to 17 December.
The basic concept is that the President will make the announcement official after the election. Most likely, this will happen before the Congress of "United Russia" (22-23 December) and the annual Forum of the Russian popular front's action, which is also scheduled for December. There's a version that suggests that Putin may declare the nomination at the beginning of January.
It is expected that the campaign of the President will result in the shortest time, his victory is not in doubt, so there is no need to hurry with the announcement of readiness to run.
The President on the results of the BRICS summit in September not responded directly to journalists ' questions about his nomination. "I have already said and can say again: we as soon as the election campaign to announce, once everything stops working, this I know firsthand," — said Putin.
The announcement of the first persons to participate in elections after appointment of a campaign by the Federation Council can be called traditional scenario. So did Vladimir Putin in the 2004 elections, the same approach was chosen before the election of 2008, won by Dmitry Medvedev.
The exception was 2011, when Medvedev announced his refusal to run for a second term and invited to nominate Putin at the Congress of "United Russia" in September.
Basic concepts two: semi-technical format or furnished with maximum drama. The priority scenario of Putin's nomination is the nomination.
Putin has strong support in the community, it is wider than the support of "United Russia", and it is therefore logical that the President will go to the polls not from the party but independently. The nomination of the "United Russia" hardly will affect the result of Putin, but because he positions himself as President of all Russians, the scenario of self-promotion "broad popular support" really is a priority.
There is a variant in which Putin first announced the extension in principle, but will report later on how exactly he will go on elections from the ruling party or as an independent candidate.
There is a possibility to choose
Due to the fact that during the year, the rating of Putin is at a consistently high level and no major negative fluctuations, the President has maximum freedom of choice of a script extension, the head of the development Fund civil society Konstantin Kostin. If we analyze the political style of Putin, then we can predict that he will announce about the participation in the elections or shortly before the official appointment of a campaign, or soon after, the expert adds.
Policy approaches to extension can be different — self-nomination from one party or coalition scenario when one party proposes and the other support, said the head of the Institute of socio-economic and political studies Dmitry Badovsky.
When self administration requirements and the timing of actions are growing, he says. You need to create an initiative group to nominate a candidate, submit documents to the CEC, to await registration of the group, then open and fill the electoral bill. When self-promotion restrictions apply to donors: one legal entity may transfer to the Fund of the candidate not more than 7% of the size of the electoral Fund (the size limit of 400 million rubles). And when the party nomination, the law allows political force is immediately transferred to the account of the candidate 50% of the size of the Fund.
The option of self involves the collection of signatures of citizens that need to pass before the end of January, so the collection process is not more than a month, two weeks holidays.
"Thus, the time when the main candidate to announce participation in the elections, will depend on the method of nomination. Self-promotion suggests an earlier announcement, the participation in elections of the party — later", — concluded Badovsky.