Brief chronicle of war looks like this: to frighten the allies, conducting large-scale maneuvers, the North Korean regime promises to have a launch of an Intercontinental ballistic missile with a powerful explosive detonation in the atmosphere, so that the world finally ceased to doubt the existence of not only nuclear weapons but also delivery vehicles.
For Donald trump, this is unacceptable. It requires its military to prevent the launch, so Kim understood that to joke with him will not be, but don't do it too hard, so Kim didn't have the answer is really to start a war.
Destroy the North Korean missile on the launch pad, in response, Pyongyang, avoiding direct military confrontation, directs to the South of the Horde of spies, the Americans, preparing for possible operations against the regime, are trafficked to the region of hundreds of combat aircraft, Kim sends a signal, firing at Seoul, in response, the Americans begin a massive military operation.
Kim, realizing that the game is lost, gives the command to launch nuclear missiles. Most of them were intercepted, but some reach the goal and turn Seoul into a radioactive rubble.
Americans respond smart bombs with nuclear warheads. Kim Jong-UN and a large part of the North Korean leadership into a plasma along with the bunkers in which they hid. The end.
A number of important details in this apocalyptic picture looks, at least, unreliable. For example, it is difficult to imagine the silence of China, on whose southern borders, in fact, the war is unfolding, and where we go not only of the cloud of radioactive ash, but survivors of the cataclysm remains of the 25 million population of North Korea. Hard to imagine that Moscow will remain indifferent to what is happening.
However, aside from technical details, the main idea of the article is that the development of the conflict to the nuclear stage could be a consequence of random factors and ambitions of the leaders, can agree.
Moreover, trump, and especially Kim's reputation for unpredictable people.
So if everything is sad, and should seriously fear "Korean Apocalypse"? Explorer bi-Bi-si Michael Smotryaev talked with kraevidom, a fellow of the Institute of Asia-Pacific studies at the Australian national University Leonid Petrov.
Leonid Petrov: I agree with the fact that Kim, and trump is unpredictable people. But they are mere figures heads certain groups power.
For Kim, there are hundreds, and probably thousands of people from the North Korean elites, with their interests and desire to survive and to enrich themselves. Of course, in their plans of nuclear Armageddon not included.
Trump also have balances that will not allow him to give orders that will not be properly perceived by the political elites of the United States.
In fact, we are already seeing: if trump cannot lift sanctions against Russia, Iran and the North Korea, how can he start a war against the advice of his advisers?
Even if we assume that Kim and trump decided to go at each other war, we must remember that they are in different weight categories.
North Korea is one of the poorest States in East Asia, where lack of electricity, fuel, food, and just can't compete with raskolniki the U.S. military, supporting hundreds of thousands of South Korean soldiers.
North Korea is like an island of opposition to the United States, but rather, the psychological resistance.
To counter American missiles and aircraft, it can not, that is why she needs a weapon, one whose presence will prevent a situation in which it can attack. And no war in North Korea will not go.
Bi-bi-si: However, it is undeniable that the situation on the Peninsula could spiral out of control against the will of its participants. Actually, this scenario of the "snowball" journalists and describe. Besides, Pyongyang - North Korea appears to be missing the concept of "unacceptable damage", while in the United States or South Korea, no one is willing to sacrifice thousands of soldiers and even more innocent civilians for the sake of taming of the shrew, Kim. Any rocket flown to GUAM, Seoul, Tokyo is already unacceptable damage. And further more. Here's what could happen?
L. P.: I think not. The situation on the Korean Peninsula is quite tense for almost 70 years, since the beginning of the Korean war. Of course, she can get out of control if someone clicks the "wrong" button, or if someone would misjudge the actions of another party.
For example, if someone will not withstand the nerves, and the North Korean air defense shot down the plane B1 In the U.S. air force, regularly flying from GUAM to South Korea to intimidate the North Korean radars.
In this situation, immediately the question arises what to do next, and there he's not trump, but South Korean President. The current President of South Korea, moon Jae In - sane man, he is ready to discuss with Kim Jong-UN, anything to avoid war.
But in South Korea was more radical presidents, for example, Lee Myung-Bak, in which the Northmen sank the South Korean Corvette, and six months also caused an artillery strike on a South Korean island. Seoul responded with their artillery, but the war is not led.
Everyone knows that war on the Korean Peninsula is a dead end. First, in economic terms, and secondly, what if the South wins? What will they do with 25 million starving, poorly educated, aggressive enough and does not understand the modern life of countrymen?
In North Korea no one is going to start a war, because they understand that they will lose it. To lose the war - this means that the leader, his family and the family leaders of the country or be destroyed, or they have to run. I doubt that they were ready for such.
Nuclear disasters I do not presume that the North Koreans have nothing to say.
They have a few weak charge capacity with Hiroshima or less real-world testing of missiles and warheads coming out in the stratosphere, and successfully returning back, they did not spend.
The statements of Pyongyang that such missiles and warheads it has, should be treated cautiously. The North Koreans really have nothing to say, except promises.
These promises, in principle, enough to contain the situation. Americans also do not always keep their word: for example, nuclear Armada that were to be sent to the sea of Japan. This was not done. Trump understands that the neighborhood there - the Russian Pacific fleet, not to mention China, and North Korea has enough submarines to control these waters.
There is a lot of talk about the fact that the US strike, landing on North Korean shores, the penetration into the hopper Kim and the destruction of the North Korean leadership, developed operational plans - but the real agents in North Korea are almost there, and any abandoned special forces there won't change anything.
North Korea for over 60 years - it is a garrison constantly on duty.
This is true in regard to possible attempts of agents of Pyongyang to sow panic in South Korea - there is also used to catch North Korean spies.
Northerners are markedly different from southerners. In each city, there are payphones, where the number where to report about North Korean submarines and suspicious people. Price list, by the way: for the submarine - the reward of 100 thousand dollars for spy - 30 thousand.
In General, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is much more stable than it might seem.
Bi-bi-si: Beyond the boundaries of our reasoning so far were China, almost the only lever of influence on North Korea, though, because 90% of the turnover comes from China. By the way, when voting on new sanctions against Pyongyang China, like Russia, contrary to custom, they were supported. The situation when the Korean Peninsula became a desert, no one in Beijing don't need him and 25 million refugees in the North, which is also not clear what to do. How extensive Chinese tools to deter its southern neighbor?
L. P.: Leverage over Pyongyang have always been quite limited, and they are now virtually exhausted.
Relations between Pyongyang and Beijing is very cool, perhaps the worst in the history of Korean-Chinese relations. Part of the reason is that China is behaving very arrogantly in relation to Kim Jong Ynu, its never been invited to Beijing, in response, Kim is conducting nuclear and missile tests in defiance of warnings from Beijing. At the political level, the relationship is complex and almost a conflict.
Economic relations are also complicated. Trade is on the decline, again on the initiative of China. The North Koreans continue to enrich themselves at the expense of China - to send its workers to impose sanctions on Chinese investment, China, in turn, restricts imports from North Korea.
So I'm afraid in this case, China can't do. All that's left is to try to rein in the North Korean regime through the UN Security Council. But North Korea is under sanctions for almost 70 years, and really it doesn't change anything.
Moreover, Pyongyang can always negotiate with Russia, or South Korea. In Southeast Asia there are thousands of North Korean workers and companies that bring foreign exchange earnings. Middle East, Eastern Europe - the northerners have space to maneuver without China.
If China fully block the oil supply and trade of food and industrial goods, of course, it will significantly complicate the makeup of the elites and the markets, but I think in this case it will be replaced by Russia.
Russia and China have been competing in North Korea and access to port facilities, and for access to mines, minerals, and Korea is full of different kinds of rare-earth me