First topic — Russia and its authoritarian and aggressive course. Summit participants will have to develop new policies and strategies against Moscow. According to General Pavel, this approach should combine the two lines of behavior: deterrence, but if it is not valid, then the defense.
The second topic is the threat from the South that comes from non-state actors, terrorism, extremism, migration. It requires entirely different approaches.
"From a military point of view, the threat from the East is much more serious because the Russian opportunities, including an extensive nuclear Arsenal, potentially pose a problem, " said General Paul. — Russian intentions unclear. I don't think Russia wants to enter into a confrontation with NATO with conventional and nuclear weapons".
"The threat from the South is not as life threatening, but it already exists, and we cannot stop it only by military means, we cannot build walls, believing that it would be quieter to live in Europe. We need to stabilize crisis regions, and it will be a long process", — said the Chairman of the NATO military Committee.
Speaking about the aggressive actions of the Russian side, Peter Paul said: "a Ground invasion of NATO territory no, but the activity observed in Russian air and sea space of neighbouring countries. The invasion of numerous, and their number is constantly growing. This corresponds to the Russian military activities in General and primarily concerned with the long-range aviation. Russia seems to say "We can, therefore we do".
NATO General sees danger in the fact that "Russian planes often fly without a transponder and pose a threat to the safety of civil aviation". "But there are deliberate provocations like the ones we saw in the Baltic sea and the Black sea, where Russian fighter jets flew at very low altitude over the military ships, simulating attacking maneuvers," Paul said. — Such actions are potentially dangerous: they may provoke an incident with the Domino effect that is very difficult to stop. We intend to discuss with Russia transparent measures to avoid such effects".
Paul emphasized that diplomatic channels of communication with Russia open, while the cooperation was terminated after the annexation of Crimea. Russia, he says, prefers contacts bilateral level, she speaks with the Americans, the British, the French, the Germans. It has no strategic interest in dialogue with NATO.
"In 2014, we have seen how Russia uses what we call "hybrid war". According to the Russian doctrine of 2010, we are all in a state of permanent war through means such as propaganda, soldiers without insignia, the techniques of cyberwar, and up to conventional and nuclear weapons. It is not open war is a new way of warfare," explained Paul.
The General continued: "We must be prepared for the fact that the Russians used similar scenarios in countries where there are large communities, Vladimir Putin said he reserves the right to protect these minorities, wherever they may be. If it serves to achieve political goals, he will not hesitate to use military means".
"We must be prepared for all these eventualities, " repeated Paul. — We are preparing our forces for scenarios similar to what is unfolding in Eastern Ukraine, and the Baltic countries were at the forefront of these threats. We develop a plan of defense of this region, to be adopted at the summit in Warsaw. It will be followed by other plans for other regions bordering Russia".
Russia, as he said, knows that its actions give rise to confusion and uncertainty in Brussels. "We are aware of this danger. That's why we carry out a large-scale effort to demonstrate our firm commitment to protect its allies," the General said.
However, Peter Paul believes that in the current environment there is no need to buildup on the border. It is not necessary to enter into an arms race with Russia. She needs to realize that NATO will not allow anyone to commit aggression against member countries, but at the same time, "we leave the dialogue open".
Answering the question of whether the Alliance has the means to implement its ambitious plans, the General said: "This subject overlaps with others: we are talking about military budgets. The allies pledged to increase military spending to 2% of GDP. In Warsaw will discuss ways to reconcile the American and European efforts. The US provides 75 percent of NATO spending, but this cannot continue in the future. Even Donald trump used this argument and drew attention to the subject. Europeans really need to do more. Should aim for a ratio of 50:50 and not 75:25".
The General said in this regard, a positive point: "Almost all countries do not cut military budgets, and 16 countries have increased defense spending".