Really, you need a lot of courage to the harsh tone comment on the situation, value and further development of which for most of its participants remain unknown. Of course, a return to old normality impossible. In that moment, when information appeared about the first killed, normality under Yanukovich was unimaginable even theoretically.
When last year began the first Евромайдан, the government preferred to gain time, to avoid confrontation and make unexpected steps in the hope of thwarting the plans and arrangements of the opposition. Now this won't do - regardless of how long they will continue to try to negotiations. What happens next - whether the triumvirate opposition to preserve its influence "on the street", when Yanukovych understands that he's lost about these issues can only speculate those who better understands the situation on the spot.
But there are several things you can consider now. First of all, at least since the Second world war in Europe was not such large-scale and bloody protests against the democratically elected government. Here you can specify in advance all objections. Of course, Yanukovych quite unattractive. Depriving its people dream about the European Union, he did not only foolish, it is criminal. He was elected President of Ukraine on a relatively fair election. He was held within its mandate, at least until the moment when, at the end of November ordered the "Berkut" beating demonstrators. Or at least no objections.
And what? Actually, it's bad news for democracy around the world. Already for a long time, we often think that the democratic competition and elections avoid scenarios that are teetering on the brink of civil war. Perhaps democracy is not the ideal form of government, but it allows you to correct their mistakes - these words are familiar to us. Kiev, on the contrary, shows that against the democratically legitimate President and the government of the people can now speak not less hard, than against different Mubarak and Ben Ali. Those who are now protesting on the street Grushevskogo, it's the same people who, under the constitutional procedure chose Yanukovych as President. They don't want to fix errors with the help of elections, competing parties and the courts. They prefer Molotov cocktails.
One may argue that in Ukraine there is no "right" democracy, such as in Western Europe or North America. Naturally, no. The orange revolution took place recently saved economic problems, problems with the national and geopolitical identity and so on. The trouble is that such a Western democracy there and in many other countries of the region, where people may not injustice on the streets, but this is due to laziness and apathy, but not because they were satisfied with the democracy.
Here it is worth remembering mediocre satisfaction of the Latvian society efficiency democracy, our trust to the government and Parliament, carefully hidden from ourselves longing for its own national Yanukovych, more precisely, of Lukashenka (which, of course, much more experienced and more efficient to his Ukrainian counterpart).
And when we remember all of these things can be confidently begin to teach Ukrainians to live democratically. Of course, in the Western and our liberal circles, you can meet a lot of nice people, and the sympathy which can attract anyone who выкрикнет "the Gang - get out!" against his government. However, we have to deal with a more serious problem than the struggle of good people with bad government. This is a fundamental crisis of legitimacy of young European democracies.
Of course, plays its role and geopolitics. Yanukovych because of their own stupidity greatly stepped on the toes of the active part of his people. These are people who do not want their individual and unique life stuck in the historical hole that previously lived Ukraine. They would like to see Ukraine sometime in the future, become a "normal" European country, and not to some post-Soviet hybrid. Anyway, geopolitically being in such a hole, unfortunately, is associated with the Russian Federation. In the understanding of this part of the Ukrainians, the European Union is not bureaucrats, rectifiers cucumbers. This is a kind of антиРоссия - earth atmosphere of well-being, social security and the rule of law, without different kind of "bonuses" Putin's Russia. Of course, all of these moods in the frightening form of joined always influential in the West of Ukraine extreme-right Russophobes, actually - fascist forces. But I would like to think that they are in the protest movement does not set the tone.
the Idea the EU is a антиРоссии for Ukraine is attractive. The trouble is that Europe does not want to see themselves in the role of such антиРоссии. The EU in General was not created to participate in the geopolitical wars, the majority of politicians of the EU not want it. As correctly noted by Stanislav Belkovsky, the idea of the EU is not a Messiahship. Rather, it is a banality good life". This belief, according to which that person was good, he don't have to be Holy. He just need to follow a clear, banal, instructions, obey the law, pay taxes, and a little respect for other people. Economic and bureaucratic arguments EU understands much better than the notion of a global restructuring or historical revenge. By the way, talking about it and very modest interest Brussels to discussions about the totalitarian past of Europe, which in his political views are trying to initiate the poles and the Balts. In Europe the past no one was easy and rosy, but it might be worth unite to deal with practical matters. In short, the power of the EU in its banality, and not geopolitical ambitions.
this position we can return to Ukraine. It is clear that despite the Russian television, hardly in this country in the near future someone will be able to surpass the "soft power" of Europe. But it is unlikely Europe itself is ready to fulfill the dreams of Ukrainians. At least, Edward Lucas, which is hard to suspect the protection of Russian interests, configured skeptical. The policy of "Eastern partnership" was notoriously bad, and it is unlikely in the near future will change. But hardly will decrease and the desire of the active part of the Ukrainian society to live, "as in Europe". It is hoped that the next government will take Ukraine to Europe between Copenhagen and Milan, and not to Bucharest and Riga.
And if we talk about the near future of Ukraine, then, as usual, have a great value of money. Whether Klitschko, Yatseniuk, Tymoshenko or whatever it is, the next President of Ukraine will need its legitimacy. But we no longer believe in beautiful words and links on values. Even if (I hope without further bloodshed will be reached change of elites, the people's trust continues for about six months. As shows the example of early Saakashvili, these six months for reform can be fatal. But then it will take something more tangible. It is about 44 million-strong population, which is on the verge of default. The solvency of the EU now leaves much to be desired and, unlike Russia, Brussels not fond of the geopolitical projects. US influence in this organization is not quite the same as it was in the early 2000-H. So, the Ukrainians will have to sort by. And maybe it's for the better.
Translation DELFI. Original here