Ukrainians are not ready now to come out EN masse to protest. Mikheil Saakashvili should not expect that in response to the call to "Arise, Ukraine!", people massively go out on the street, ascertain sociologists. But this on one condition.
There would be no repetition
A repeat of 2013, when street protests left millions of people, is unlikely. This is evidenced by recent results of research of Fund "Democratic initiatives" name Ilka Kucheriv, held jointly with the Kyiv international Institute of sociology. According to sociologists 67% of Ukrainian citizens do not see prospects of participation in protests. Of these, 42% "definitely not go" and 25% "rather than go" out on the street to protest. However, 22% of Ukrainians are ready to participate in protests. 7% of them "definitely" and 15% of citizens "likely" out on the street, if such protests will be.
"Unlikely that the current protests in Kiev near the Parliament have the potential. The situation is not as straightforward as in 2013. Then there was a clear distinction between the government and the opposition. Now the government itself, and the opposition is heterogeneous. A lot of controversy and a considerable part of the population does not understand what is happening ", — says the General Director of Kiev international Institute of sociology Volodymyr Paniotto. He notes, that uncertainty leads to the fact that protests in the image and likeness of 2013 will not.
With this agrees the Deputy Director of the social service Center named after Olexander Razumkov Mikhail Mischenko. According to him, although Ukrainians are dissatisfied with the actions of the authorities and the failure of the reforms, however, external aggression from the Russian side does not allow this discontent to "go out". Sociologists state — among Ukrainians, there are fears of mass protests, as they can significantly weaken a country's ability to withstand external threats and trigger economic chaos. "We need to take into account external factors. He is holding back people. But, if the government can demonstrate arbitrariness, even this fuse may not work", — said Mikhail Mishchenko.
Ukrainians can mobilize the arbitrariness of the authorities
Sociologists point out that such overt manifestations of arbitrary power in 2013 was the failure to sign the agreement of Ukraine on Association with the EU, despite support for this idea of society, and the beating of students on November 30 at the Maidan. "Ukrainians can very long endure low material standard of living, but the least blatant injustice, violence and tyranny immediately mobilize people," said DW Mishchenko.
According to the Fund "Democratic initiatives", the protest potential of the Ukrainians to the events on the Maidan in 2013 was at 25%, but rose sharply to 40% after the beating of students on Maidan. "The current Ukrainian authorities have behaved towards supporters of Saakashvili by the Verkhovna Rada. However, things can change dramatically, if there would be violence", — predicts Director of the Foundation Iryna Bekeshkina.
Saakashvili is not for independence
In conditions of peaceful protest, according to her, Saakashvili is little chance "to repeat the Maidan". "Now the protests of Ukrainians are not at the peak. People are more apathetic than revolutionary. Shares Saakashvili's mass not supported by Kiev, and this is a serious protest online," said in an interview with DW Bekeshkina.
Sociologists point to the fact that now in Kiev at the square of Constitution near the Verkhovna Rada gathered mainly people who are unhappy with the situation of the regions. "This is not the middle class, which hopes Saakashvili. There are few young people. Those who are now there is — people who have free time and nothing to lose" — suggests Irina Bekeshkina.
In her opinion, the mass protests across Ukraine is possible only under several conditions: simultaneous mass feeling of extreme desperation and indignation, the existence of a political force that will have at least a medium level of confidence and will be able to clearly answer the question "what next?". "While neither Saakashvili nor his political force fit these criteria," — says the analyst.