According to Obama, the sanctions "can and should be withdrawn" in case the Kremlin will fulfill all the conditions of the Minsk agreements, concerning the establishment of peace in the East of Ukraine. Similarly expressed and Merkel.
Coincidence or not, but the word "Crimea" in the speeches of the leaders of the two countries never sounded. Some observers in Ukraine were quick to assess this as a reservation, because otherwise we have to admit that the West accept the Russian annexation of Crimea and Kiev lost control over the Crimea.
Last month, on the eve of the second anniversary of the March referendum in Crimea, the official U.S. state Department spokesman John Kirby promised that sanctions against Russia will remain in force until such time as the Peninsula "will not be returned to Ukraine". But even given the fact that the opinion of the White house for the past time could be adjusted, the official state Department is not the President, and not Kirby defines the foreign policy of States. Until autumn this year — it is the prerogative of Obama, who is unlikely to want to leave my predecessor a whole load of accumulated problems in relations with Russia.
Moreover, even among experts, who can hardly be suspected of sympathizing with the Kremlin, gaining popularity the belief that the accession of Crimea to the Russian Federation — an irreversible process. In this situation, the most likely chances of Ukraine to get back the Peninsula are not related to some actions of Kiev in this direction and not with pressure from the West, and with the possible disintegration of Russia itself in the case of the collapse of the current regime.
The Kremlin must realise that the continued support of the separatists in the East of Ukraine, preservation of the conflict in its current form and as a consequence the prolongation of the Western sanctions will eventually become an unbearable burden, and so being in the stagnation of the economy. But even if the Kremlin, which in recent years has rarely demonstrated the adequacy in foreign policy, will listen to Obama and will do everything to ensure that Ukraine gains full control over the territories of DNR and LNR, whether he will get the chance to legalize the annexation of Crimea in the eyes of the international community? Unfortunately Ukrainians — more likely Yes than no. At least de facto.
The categorical statements of some Western politicians, Recalling that Moscow violated international law, speak of the inadmissibility of recognition of Russian Crimea, should not mislead. History knows many examples when the annexation on all sides to be illegal, ultimately received recognition and an aggressor state triumphed.
Two scenarios for annexed territories can be tracked on the example of Indonesia, which since its formation 70 years ago annexed two territories: East Timor and the Western part of New Guinea. And, if in the first case, the international community showed integrity, to which he was impelled in the first place, the ongoing struggle of local residents against the occupiers, the second Jakarta succeeded, captured in 1960, the territory of Papua is now recognized as Indonesian territory.
Thus, if to draw Parallels with the Crimea, in the presence of many differences (for example, at the time of occupation by Indonesia the Western part of Papua that was not the territory of another state, and only were going to declare independence with the support of the metropolis — the Netherlands) is much more them just in case virtually painless seizure of Papua, where there was also held a referendum on accession, while the annexation of East Timor turned into a lengthy guerrilla war and brutal repression by the Indonesians. It is difficult to imagine anything similar in Crimea.
As to Paupa, there Indonesia acted in a much less favourable terms than Russia in Crimea — the vast majority of the population of this territory was peoples very far from Indonesians and ethnic, and religious, and all other characteristics. At present, the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, acting on the territory of Ukraine, and their impact on current processes, and level of activity of its military cells are much more reminiscent of the little-known movement for a free Papua than FRETILIN (Revolutionary front for independence of East Timor), which, despite the losses in 80% of the staff, continued the resistance until the departure of the Indonesians and in the end got the power at home.
These comparisons, of course, very approximate (by the way, in the case of Timor, it is possible to remember another parallel — Indonesia has introduced troops there just once in Portugal, which controlled the region, there was the so-called carnation Revolution, which refers to events on the Kiev Maidan in February of 2014), but they, nevertheless, can be seen in the context of the conventions of international law. Its the norm today, as a century ago, often operate on the principle of "law — that pole: where you will turn — there and came out" and depend on the political situation.
The injured party , in this case — Ukraine, of course, it seems that the settlement of the situation around the Peninsula is in the midst of all the international diplomacy that is far from true. Subsidized Peninsula, many Russian patriots were not happy about the return of Sevastopol is of great strategic importance in military terms and not related to hydrocarbon-rich regions, so his place on the periphery of big politics — somewhere near Papua and Timor, the latter for the world community even more important, there on his shelf discovered huge reserves of oil.
Kiev, all the forces seeking in the EU, of course, can count on the support of Brussels in the Crimean issue, that's just going through hard times the European Union in its confrontation with the Kremlin hardly will decide on more stringent measures than those undertaken to date. Yes, and those, judging by Merkel's position, can be partially collapsed. Just calm down the Donbas.
As for the USA, as stated by Donald trump, the presidential candidate of the Republicans, and possibly future occupant of the White house, "Crimea — the case of Europe". However, the main trump's opponent, Democrat Hillary Clinton holds a different point of view, but it is unlikely to convince fellow citizens that Peninsula to another part of the world for Americans is so important that it is worth finally to break with Russia. At least with Indonesia, which is a "strategic partner of the United States," White house supports a relatively close relationship. And Papua Timor this is not a hindrance.